Where Speaker Johnson sees the GOP's path to victory: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior congressional reporter Scott Wong sits down with House Speaker Mike Johnson as he barnstorms the country in support of congressional Republican candidates. Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down our latest NBC News poll, which shows how President Joe Biden is serving as a drag on Vice President Kamala Harris.

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HELLERTOWN, Pa. — In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., detailed how he sees Republicans growing the House majority and winning back the White House and Senate: by capturing a larger percentage of Hispanic, Black and Jewish voters as well as union workers — traditionally Democratic constituencies — than in past elections.

“When we do the math on the other side of this election, this will bear out that we will have had a demographic shift,” Johnson said before a campaign event on behalf of a GOP congressional candidate in Hellertown.

“I think we’re going to have a record number of Hispanic and Latino voters. I think a record number of Black and African American voters, Jewish voters, union voters. I’m talking to all these groups of people,” he continued. “And they’re not just coming on board reluctantly; they are excited.”

At rallies, Johnson and former President Donald Trump have blamed Vice President Kamala Harris for the high cost of goods and failing to secure the border — two top issues for voters — even as inflation has cooled and Trump helped kill a bipartisan Senate border deal.

“It’s a real erosion in their base,” Johnson said of the Democrats. “And the reason is because I think people are genuinely looking beyond party, beyond personality. I think they’re looking at the policies because they’re evaluating how their lives are now and how they were four years ago.”

The 52-year-old speaker has campaigned this cycle in more than 220 cities in 40 states, including a swing last week through Pennsylvania. In these final three weeks before Election Day, he’ll set foot in 65 other cities in 24 states as Republicans seek to attract new voters to defend or increase their minuscule three-seat majority in the House.

The bulk of Johnson’s time on the campaign trail has been spent in battleground districts in California and New York, blue states where his party is defending a dozen seats and trying to flip a handful of others. The majority could be won or lost in either of those two states, given how closely divided the House is. But Pennsylvania could also be critical, boasting a handful of tight races in swing districts.

Read more from Scott →

Of all the findings in the latest NBC News poll, this one helps explain why Vice President Kamala Harris’ momentum has stalled with three weeks to go until Election Day: President Joe Biden remains a political drag.

We see it in the share of voters who believed Biden’s policies have helped them (25%), versus those who said Biden’s policies have hurt them (45%).

Compare that with the 44% in the poll who thought Trump’s policies have helped them, and the 31% who said they’ve been hurt.

We also see it in Biden’s approval rating in the poll (43%), while retrospective approval for Trump’s presidency is 5 points higher (48%).

And we see it in this question on what concerns voters more — Harris continuing the same approach as Biden, or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president. Overall, 43% of voters said they are more concerned about Harris following in Biden’s path, compared with 41% who are more worried about Trump repeating the actions of his White House tenure.

“The fact that Harris trails even slightly on this measure is a warning sign, because voters are more likely to believe that Biden’s policies are hurting their family, while Trump’s policies helped their family,” said Jeff Horwitt, the Democratic half of the bipartisan team that conducts the NBC News poll.

For Bill McInturff, the Republican half of the polling team, the “headwinds” that Harris is facing in the survey include running as the sitting vice president of an unpopular president who chose not to seek re-election.

“She is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” he said.

The good news for Harris is that she has separated herself somewhat from Biden — she’s slightly more popular than Biden in the poll, and she leads Trump by 5 points on which candidate better represents change (though that’s down from her 9-point advantage a month ago). Her ballot position in the NBC News poll is also stronger than it was for Biden in all of 2024 when he was still in the race.

The challenge for her, however, is that she’s been unable to answer what she’d do differently than Biden — at least so far, as NBC News’ Monica Alba and Carol E. Lee report.

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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